Each week this season, Newsweek Sports activities Betting Editor Tyler Everett is providing his ATS picks for the highest faculty soccer video games of the week.
Week 6 of the 2025 faculty soccer season has a troublesome act to observe after the fireworks that Week 5 delivered.
Vanderbilt vs. Alabama in a rematch of final yr’s memorable upset by the Commodores is without doubt one of the headliners on Saturday afternoon. Later, the top-20 battle between Miami and Florida State in primetime guarantees to be top-of-the-line installments of that rivalry in a very long time.
Texas vs. Florida is among the many different under-the-radar video games that we’re excited to see this weekend.
- No. 9 Texas (-5.5) vs. Florida — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
- No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama (-12.5) — Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
- No. 3 Miami (-4.5) vs. No. 18 Florida State — Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
No. 9 Texas (-5.5) vs. Florida — Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Picks: Florida +5.5 (greatest accessible odds: -110 at FanDuel); Below 42.5 (-108 at DK)
At first look, taking a Gators workforce coming off three straight losses, adopted by a Week 5 bye, to hold with the No. 9 Longhorns sounds ludicrous, does not it?
However there are a few causes to love Florida to at the very least preserve Saturday’s matchup with the preseason No. 1 workforce within the nation fascinating.
In case you’re tired of backing the Gators, the standard of each of those defenses — to not point out how underwhelming Arch Manning and DJ Lagway have been thus far — makes the Below one other nice wager on this matchup.
Per ESPN’s SP+, Texas is the very best defensive workforce within the nation, and Florida is No. 24.
Again to the case for Florida, although. Religion on this workforce has to begin with what it did late in 2024. After it was written off following a 4-5 begin, Florida beat LSU as a slight dwelling underdog to get to 5-5. Every week later, UF pulled off one of many largest upsets of the yr, beautiful then-No. 9 Ole Miss 24-17 as 13.5-point dwelling ‘canine.
With that in thoughts, I’ll assume twice earlier than ruling out an against-the-ropes Billy Napier squad. There’s additionally purpose to consider proficient Gators QB DJ Lagway is due for a step ahead. His season is off to a horrific begin that included a five-interception evening vs. LSU and a listless efficiency vs. Miami (12-for-23 passing for simply 61 yards, with 0 touchdowns and 4 sacks).
Lagway is but to resemble the participant who flashed late final yr, however in a do-or-die sport at dwelling, he is value keeping track of on this one, even towards the loaded Longhorns D.
Maybe the largest purpose to love Florida to cowl, although, is what we have seen from preseason Heisman Trophy favourite Manning to this point this yr. Struggling towards Ohio State on the street in Week 1 was one factor, however Manning additionally performed poorly towards UTEP in Week 3. His 11-for-25 day passing for 114 yards in that one set off a ton of crimson flags.
Manning did put up large numbers vs. San Jose State and Sam Houston two of the final three weeks, however he is but to come back wherever near dwelling as much as the large hype towards a top quality protection.
For me, all the things is including as much as this being a rock combat, making it exhausting to withstand taking Florida to cowl as the house ‘canine.
No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama (-12.5) — Saturday, 3:30 p.m.
Decide: Vanderbilt +12.5 (greatest accessible odds: -110 at FanDuel)
Overlook the narrative about whether or not “David” can shock “Goliath” for the second time in as a few years.
Regardless of this program’s historical past, QB Diego Pavia and this Commodores are hardly some also-ran hoping for an additional miracle on Saturday evening. Simply ask Virginia Tech, South Carolina and Utah State (every of these groups misplaced to Vandy by at the very least 20 factors this season).
Vandy is strong on each side of the ball, thanks largely to top-of-the-line, most balanced working video games within the nation. Pavia is considered one of three Commodores averaging at the very least 5.3 yards per stick with it 20-plus carries to this point this yr, and 4 gamers have at the very least 10 receptions, together with preseason first-team All-SEC tight finish Eli Stowers.
This Commodores offense faces a troublesome job towards a Bama D that entered the season with lofty expectations and regarded the half final Saturday evening in Athens. The Tide held Georgia to only 21 factors in that contest after limiting the Dawgs to only 2-of-8 on third-down. Bama did, nevertheless, enable Georgia to select up 6.9 yards per stick with it 33 dashing makes an attempt, together with 4 runs of 20-plus yards.
This additionally looks as if a superb place to say that again in Week 1, Alabama struggled to cease Florida State’s working sport. The Noles rushed for 230 yards on 49 carries in that contest, together with 16 dashing makes an attempt for 78 yards by Tommy Castellanos.
All that being stated, given how effectively Crimson Tide QB Ty Simpson performed final week, I would not hesitate to take Alabama to cowl at -6.5 on this revenge sport. In truth, I might most likely play Bama as much as -9.5 at dwelling.
The present 12.5-point unfold, nevertheless, is extreme, particularly towards a Vandy workforce with a transparent energy that ought to — at the very least on paper — create some severe issues for the Alabama protection.
No. 3 Miami (-4.5) vs. No. 18 Florida State — Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
Decide: Miami -4 (greatest accessible odds: -110 at bet365)
Let’s begin by noting that the Canes are listed as 4.5-point favorites at FanDuel and DraftKings. To me, they’re particularly tempting so long as they’re accessible at -4 at bet365.
Miami has gotten off to a lot of sizzling begins in recent times, solely to soften down late within the season (together with final yr). I am satisfied this yr’s squad is totally different, although.
The Canes are wonderful on each traces of scrimmage, and so they’ve already bodily dominated three strong groups: Notre Dame within the season opener, South Florida in Week 3 and Florida* in Week 4.
Mario Cristobal’s squad additionally has the advantage of coming off a bye, whereas Florida State misplaced at Virginia in additional time final Friday evening. The Noles offense has been spectacular underneath OC Gus Malzahn, together with in Week 1 towards a Bama squad that beat Georgia on the street final week.
This Saturday, although, I do not see FSU having a lot success on the bottom towards star DE Rueben Bain and the stout Miami entrance seven. Keep in mind, the Canes have already bottled up Notre Dame in Week 1 (28 carries for simply 93 yards), South Florida in Week 3 (27 carries for 40 yards) and Florida in Week 4 (29 carries for 80 yards).
These performances make it exhausting to think about Florida State getting its working sport going on this contest. If FSU QB Tommy Castellanos has to win this sport together with his arm, I do not see the Noles conserving this sport shut for 60 minutes.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Florida State D regarded wonderful in Week 1 towards Bama, however it struggled to get off the sphere vs. Virginia final week, even on an evening when it got here up with three interceptions. The Noles surrendered 27 first downs and a quarter mile of offense vs. UVA — together with 200-plus each on the bottom and thru the air — in that double-overtime loss as 7.5-point street favorites.
*Regardless of the Gators’ 1-3 document, Miami’s 26-7 win over Florida was one more early-season assertion by the Canes.
Newsweek could earn an affiliate fee when you enroll via any hyperlinks on this article. See the sportsbook operator’s phrases and circumstances for vital particulars. Sports activities betting operators haven’t any affect over newsroom protection.
