As strain builds on Congress to punish members dealing with ethics and misconduct allegations, Home Republicans are confronting an issue that goes nicely past questions of accountability: the chance that expulsions themselves might price the social gathering management of the chamber.
With Republicans holding one of many narrowest Home margins in trendy historical past, even a small variety of vacancies might instantly undermine Speaker Mike Johnson’s means to control—and power the GOP to gamble on particular elections, the place Democrats have lately overperformed.
Republicans presently management 217 seats, alongside one impartial who caucuses with them, giving the social gathering precisely 218 votes—the naked minimal wanted for a majority within the 435‑member Home. Democrats maintain 214 seats, with three vacancies. That leaves Johnson with no cushion for defections, absences, or procedural missteps.
Newsweek contacted Home Democratic and Republican management for remark.
Requires Expulsion Develop From Each Events
Calls to expel lawmakers have intensified in latest weeks, drawing help from members of each events and increasing past a single case.
Democratic Consultant Eric Swalwell suspended his marketing campaign for California governor following reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN that detailed allegations of sexual misconduct involving a number of girls. Swalwell has denied the allegations, however lawmakers from each events have nonetheless referred to as for his resignation or urged the Home to contemplate expulsion.
The renewed concentrate on Swalwell has additionally revived scrutiny of different members dealing with ethics or misconduct points. Texas Republican Tony Gonzales admitted to having an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide, whereas Florida Republican Cory Mills is beneath investigation by the Home Ethics Committee over allegations of sexual misconduct or courting violence, in addition to potential marketing campaign finance violations.
Gonzales introduced in March that he wouldn’t search re‑election after strain from Home GOP management, although Johnson had beforehand stopped wanting calling for his resignation, saying in February, “I don’t assume it’s time to name for resignation.”
A rising variety of Democrats have publicly supported expelling each Swalwell and Gonzales, joined by Republicans together with Representatives Byron Donalds and Anna Paulina Luna, each of Florida. New York Republican Consultant Mike Lawler has additionally added Democratic Consultant Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick of Florida to the checklist of lawmakers he believes ought to resign or face expulsion.
Final month, a Home Ethics subcommittee discovered that Cherfilus‑McCormick dedicated 25 ethics violations associated to the alleged misuse of federal catastrophe reduction funds to help her election marketing campaign. She is scheduled to face a sanctions listening to earlier than the total Ethics Committee on April 21 and can also be dealing with a prison trial associated to the matter.
Former New York Republican Consultant George Santos, who was expelled from the Home in 2023, weighed in on social media, urging the lawmakers to resign quite than face expulsion. “There’s NO dignity in being expelled,” Santos wrote, including that he would have dealt with his personal case in a different way if given one other probability.
Different lawmakers echoed that sentiment. Luna mentioned resignation would protect “some sliver of private dignity,” warning that members who refused to step apart would face expulsion. South Carolina Republican Consultant Nancy Mace additionally referred to as for swift motion, writing on X that Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus‑McCormick had been “unfit to serve” and will resign instantly.
How Potential Expulsions May Harm the GOP
Expelling all 4 members presently dealing with these calls would seemingly hold the Home’s partisan cut up in steadiness—two Democrats and two Republicans—however ensuing vacancies would create vulnerabilities for the GOP.
If even two Republican lawmakers had been expelled or in any other case faraway from workplace, the GOP would immediately fall under the bulk threshold, no matter how or when the seats are stuffed. Vacancies don’t decrease the variety of votes required to manage the Home, that means Republicans would lose their majority earlier than a single particular election poll is solid.
Not all seats carry the identical political danger. Swalwell’s California district and Cherfilus‑McCormick’s South Florida seat are extensively seen as safely Democratic, making social gathering management there unlikely to alter even in a particular election. However the calculus turns into far murkier in districts held by Mills and Gonzales.
Gonzales represents Texas’ twenty third District, which President Donald Trump carried by roughly 15.5 factors in 2024, whereas Mills’ Florida district backed Trump by about 12.5 factors. In a traditional common election, these margins would counsel Republican consolation. In particular elections, latest historical past tells a distinct story.
Over the previous a number of months, Democrats have steadily overperformed presidential ends in particular elections, together with in districts Trump received by double digits. Decrease turnout, heightened nationwide consideration, and the tendency for voters to make use of specials to ship a message to the social gathering in energy have all contributed to outcomes that defy topline partisan labels.
That pattern means Republicans can not assume that even strongly Trump‑leaning districts could be straightforward holds if vacancies set off particular elections—notably if these elections are framed round scandal or congressional dysfunction.
Timing provides one other layer to the calculus, although the chance is uneven. Governors management when particular elections are referred to as, and in Republican‑led states like Florida and Texas, vacancies would probably be stuffed comparatively rapidly. Even so, any interval with out seated members would instantly drop Republicans under the 218 votes wanted for a Home majority, complicating Johnson’s means to handle the ground whereas these races play out.
For Home leaders, then, the query is just not merely whether or not expulsions are warranted, however whether or not the social gathering can afford the results. Dropping management of the ground—even briefly—would weaken Republican leverage on should‑move laws, intensify inner divisions, and hand Democrats new procedural alternatives.
What Occurs Subsequent
The timing of any expulsions stays unsure, with no mounted schedule for Home motion and every case shifting on a distinct procedural monitor.
Democrats are presently favored to win the Home in November, in response to polling-based election forecasts and prediction markets, with Republicans barely favored to retain their majority within the Senate.
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